Technology Introduction:

HDTV Television - An Introduction (no date) Now, the most significant problem faced with HDTV is exactly the same problem faced with color TV in 1954. There are approximately 600 million television sets in the world and approximately 70% of them are color TVs. An important and critical consideration is whether the new HDTV standard should be compatible with the existing color TV standards, supplant the existing standards, or be simultaneously broadcast with the existing standards (with the understanding that the existing standards would be faded out over time).

How HDTV Works (no date) somewhat useful -- mostly marketing

High definition television defined (no date) - Excellent overview!

Market Research:

A Look Ahead at HDTV, Shot by You (August 11, 2005) When it comes to attitudes toward high-definition TV, you can pretty much divide the world into three camps. Group A thinks HDTV is the greatest invention since the microwave, and counts the hours until the nation's transition to HDTV is complete. Group B thinks that HDTV is an enormous boondoggle, a bald-faced government-industry conspiracy to milk the citizenry for billions. And Group C would just like somebody to explain what HDTV is.

The HDTV revolution takes its time (May 30, 2005) Research company In-Stat (a division of B&C parent Reed Elsevier) reports that 12.9 million households had HD television sets at the end of 2004. But only 3.9 million were receiving HD programming. Moreover, 51.7 million homes are projected to have HDTV sets in 2008, with 17.4 million receiving HD programming.

Digital TV re-emerges on the European market (May 24, 2005) Digital TV has taken a back seat in Europe in recent years as broadband Internet adoption has soared but the latest evidence suggests that digital TV is once again in the spotlight. Satellite remains the dominant digital TV platform in terms of the total audience, with 25m homes, and we expect it to retain market leadership until 2010 by adding new services such as personal video recording and HDTV.

Clearing up the HDTV picture (March 11, 2005) More recently, retailers and cable companies have been working in tandem to sell HD products to consumers. Comcast, for example, has been working on partnerships with Best Buy and Circuit City to improve training of their salespeople. Best Buy has been running rebates for cable services with the purchase of new televisions. The result has been higher subscription rates for HD service. The 800,000 Comcast subscribers who signed up for HD service started when Comcast began working with retail chains to better educate their salespeople. Credit: CNET Networks. Some users don't fully maximize their HDTV experience. Above is LG's 62-inch DLP DU-62SY20D. Still, after spending thousands of dollars on fancy new high-definition televisions, owners commonly don't even watch shows in HD programming, according to Bruce Leichtman, principal analyst at research firm Leichtman Research Group. Ignorant bliss or not, HD television shipments have been soaring. In 2003, 3.7 million digital sets were shipped in North America. That number will more than triple to 14.9 million units by 2005, according to research firm iSuppli.

HDTV to Transition from Niche Market to Significant Contributor (May 10, 2005) Market to Generate $1.3 Billion in Satellite Communications Revenue Through 2010Â Northern Sky Research (NSR) today released its newest market survey and forecast report: "High Definition Television (HDTV) over Satellite: A Regional Assessment of Demand for Satellite-Delivered HD Channels." The report provides a unique insight into the emergence of HD and the implications for satellite operators. The report analyzes key market and technological trends and translates these trends into detailed forecasts for both HD channel growth and capacity demand growth over the next 5 years. By examining five global regions, the current state of the HD industry in various regions is provided, and regional growth forecasts are made by taking into account the variables unique to each local region. The report concludes that in almost all global regions, HD is expected to make a near term appearance and begin to have an impact on overall satellite capacity demand as a result. North America clearly leads the way with a number of HD channels currently made available by all major broadcasters, as well as the two DTH players. And despite the recent hiccups experienced through the demise of VOOM, the North American HD industry is unquestionably here to stay.

Study: embrace of HDTV moving slowly in Canada (May 3, 2005) The poll of 1,000 Canadians found about 54% of those who bought sets are still not aware of, or have yet to purchase, the technology needed to receive HD picture-quality shows. About 41% of Canadians who have HD-ready TV sets said they had no set-top box because there was insufficient HD-quality shows on Canadian broadcast schedules to make the extra purchase of required technology worthwhile. Another 19% of respondents said they preferred watching only DVDs on their HDTV sets, removing the need for a set-top box. "Surprisingly, 16% reported that they didn't know they even needed an HD set-top box to watch HD broadcast programming, suggesting that some viewers believe they are viewing HD, when in fact they are not," the poll said.

For cable, high-def is a question of time and space (April 4, 2005) The Consumer Electronics Association maintains that, by the end of 2007, half of all U.S. homes will have HDTV--and cable networks are getting ready for this change. But as of now, there are still only about 13 million HD-ready households, and probably fewer than half of them are getting actual high-def.

Sony Wants To Command HD Market (February 28, 2005) In the hopes of locking up the HD marketplace, Sony is unveiling a new mid-priced version of its popular XDCAM at NAB in April. The camera fills an important void in the company's HD product line. Estimated at between $17,000 and $20,000, the new XDCAM is priced between Sony's low-end HDV, with camcorders costing $4,000, and its high-end HDCAM, running $40,000. And with more than 50% of televisions in the US expected to be HDTV sets by the end of 2006, Hugo Gaggioni, Sony Broadcast chief technology officer, says the market will be primed for HD news, a potential sweet spot for the HD XDCAM, which will probably be available in early 2006. For those stations and sports broadcasters looking to add HD point-of-view shots, Sony has revamped its HDC-X300 compact HD camera. It weighs less than three pounds without a lens and is useful in stadiums or in keeping track of road conditions.Ê

Tech mogul sees HDTV gamble paying off (February 22, 2005) From January to September 2004, 2.4 million digital or HD television sets were sold in the United States, with some prices in excess of $1,000, according to the Consumer Electronics Association.

Comcast reaches HD set-top milestone (February 2, 2005) Buoyed in part by customers scrambling to watch Sunday's Super Bowl in all of its high-definition glory, Comcast Cable said it has breached the 1 million mark on deployed set-tops with high-definition capability. Of that figure, 800,000 were deployed in 2004, the company said, but noted that the company has seen a 143 percent increase in the number of customers connecting HDTV sets to the operator's hi-def service so far this month compared to January 2004. Comcast presently offers HD in 62 markets, equal to 93 percent of its service footprint.

Picture is Clear (December 20, 2004) New research from Leichtman Research Group found the percentage ofhouseholds with a high definition-capable TV nearly doubled in the past year, with 7% of households in the US having an HDTV at the end of the third quarter of 2004. This adoption continues to be driven by higher-income consumers, but the mean household income of HDTV ownerswent down from $95,000 to $80,000 per year.

NCTA: cable-based HDTV available to 90 M homes (November 00, 2004) U.S. cable operators now offer high-definition television (HDTV) in 177 markets, according to a new National Cable & Telecommunications Association survey. NCTA noted that 90 million of the 108 million U.S. TV homes are passed by a cable system that provides HDTV programming, up 28 percent from the 70 million homes that could get the service last December. Operators have also beefed up their local digital broadcast station lineups, offering a total of 454 stations, up 50 percent from 304 in December 2003. Programmers are also chipping in. NCTA said 17 cable networks now offer HD programming during some or all of their network schedules through mid-September.

Strategy Analytics:HDTV Into 37 Million U.S. Homes By 2008 (October 05, 2004) Competition, falling prices and new regulations will spur millions of U.S. households to adopt High Definition TV over the next five years, according to Strategy Analytics', "The Transition to Digital Television: FCC Mandates and Market Evolution." This report predicts that the number of US households owning some type of HD-capable hardware will rise from 8.7 million in 2003 to more than 14 millionby the end of this year. Roughly half of these households will also receive HD programming from cable, satellite or terrestrial sources. By 2008, some 37 million households will receive HD programming Even with this rapid growth, it remains highly unlikely that digital TV hardware will reach the penetration levels needed to conclude the government's goal of a full transition to digital broadcasting within the next five years. As a result, legislators and the FCC must seriously consider further regulatory measures, such as the down-conversion of digital signals or the subsidy of adaptors for millions of existing TVs.

Research and Markets: High-definition TV in Europe (September 09, 2004) Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com) has announced the addition of High-definition TV in Europe to their offering High-definition television (HDTV) is already being broadcast in Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea and the US, and now it is coming to Europe. .

The Three-Year Window: A PPV Model for Hi-Def? (April 19, 2004) Three years. That's how long the executives at In Demand who are overseeing the programming, distribution and marketing strategy for start-up high-definition service INHD estimate they have to make it a success. And because upconverting content doesn't cut it with hi-def fans, In Demand also has to pony up to produce original shot-in-HD programming--as they're now starting to do--but with a fraction of Discovery's (or even Mark Cuban's) budget. Because In Demand can't afford to commission original productions shot in HD that even approach the scale of Discovery's $5 million-plus Atlas HD series, it must rely on traditional licensing deals to convert from 35mm film (the best HD transfer procedure) compelling visual content such as IMAX features and archival Olympics footage, in addition to more traditional movie licensing deals with Paramount, Fox and Warner Bros. Its long-standing studio relationships in the pay-per-view arena are being leveraged for INHD, along with titles from Hallmark Entertainment to expand its family-friendly content. "Our primary business is still pay-per-view and video on demand," says Brenner. "Movie rentals are still over $10 billion a year, and cable has a better way for people to watch that's more convenient, no late fees, you save four trips back and forth to the video store and it's the same viewing experience. So that's the biggest upside for our company and our primary concentration.

Samsung, Cable Companies Set HDTV Push (March 16, 2004) Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and major U.S. cable television operators have launched a multi-million-dollar marketing campaign for high definition TV, or HDTV, in a push to bring the technology into more homes. The companies declined to detail how much was being spent on the ad campaign, but said it was an "eight-figure number," meaning it was more than $10 million.

High Anxiety (February 2, 2004) Some believe that despite launch expenses, HD in the long run can be a particularly effective weapon for small operators to wield against direct-broadcast satellite. During a panel on the topic, Hughes pointed out that 22% of Cox Communications Inc.'s HDTV subscribers are new to cable, and a portion of them are coming from DBS. So there's a chance for cable to not only retain subscribers with HD, but to get "cable nevers" and DBS customers as well. But striking deals with TV stations for their HDTV signals has been problematic, with even major MSOs like Comcast Corp. and Cox failing to close HDTV pacts with CBS affiliates in some markets in time for the Super Bowl. The MSO is charging $25 a month for HDTV — $13 for the HDTV tier and $12 for the HD-capable digital set-top. Midcontinent now has 800 total HD customers in four systems, and will need roughly at least 450 of those subscribers per system — retaining HD for a least two years — to break even with the new service, Simmons said.

HDTV a Must-Have?  (January 30, 2004) Even as Mr. Cuban was referring this week to high-definition as a "loss leader" even for major media companies, Wall Street was acknowledging that the number of HDTV receivers is already large enough "to be material," according to analysts at Bernstein Research and Lehman Brothers. "Satellite's 24 percent 'fair share' of the multichannel market suggests roughly 1 million net additions among HDTV buyers this year-or equivalent to about half of the projected total subscriber growth for the DBS industry in 2004, Fox recently announced new approaches to HDTV distribution that will be less onerous to its affiliated TV stations. Although only about 5 million HDTV sets are expected to be shipped in 2004, on the heels of 3.5 million unit in 2003, Discovery and ESPN, and producers of popular prime-time series from "The Sopranos" to "Everybody Loves Raymond" to "CSI" are climbing aboard the HDTV train. Mr. Cuban's is the only full-time HD platform around.

Just a Click Away From the HD Future (January 19, 2004) HDNet has rights to HD’s holy grail, professional sports; it airs National Hockey League and Major League Soccer games. And its new film unit is producing up to seven indie features a year in HD for under $1 million each.

High-Definition TV: Is the Signal Getting Stronger? (December 9, 2003) Among those respondents who say they are familiar with HDTV, healthy proportions report having looked at HDTV in a retail store (79%) and being somewhat likely or very likely to buy an HDTV set in the next three months (15%). 13% of people surveyed say they currently own a high definition TV set — a much higher percentage than the industry’s reported figure. “The fact is, high-definition television has yet to make much of an impression on most U.S. consumers,” says Bartos. “While a significant number of Americans have heard of it, they know almost nothing about it.”

The Long Last Gasp of Tube-Based TV (October 29, 2003) Old-style sets are on their way out, a trend that is bound to be accelerated even further by Sony's decision to end production of traditional cathode ray tubes in Japan to focus exclusively on newer display technologies. Tube sets still sell in huge numbers. In 2003, 21 million of the 31 million sets sold were analog direct-view models, with an average selling price of $231, according to the Consumer Electronics Association. But by 2007, sales of conventional sets will dwindle to less than half that, analysts say. Such sets will be attacked on the high end by digital flat-panel TV's and on the lower end by digital rear-projection sets. Prices for flat TV's using plasma technology are already dropping. A 50-inch set that cost $13,000 in 2000 can now be purchased for less than $6,000, according to DisplaySearch, a market research firm. That will drop below $5,000 by next year and to $3,000 by 2007, the firm predicts. By 2007, sales of all televisions bigger than 30 inches will jump from 17.5 million units today, to 40 million units. While consumers love big, some have balked at buying a rear-projection TV the size of a baby elephant. To reduce the bulk of such sets, manufacturers are turning to other technologies, like receivers based on the digital light processing chip from Texas Instruments to a variation of liquid crystal displays called LCoS, or liquid crystal on silicon.

HD Catching a Spark (September 26, 2003) In September alone iN Demand introduced two linear HD channels; EchoStar rolled out a package of four HD channels for $9.99; Cablevision added local channels to its HD lineup and unveiled an HD video-on-demand service; The WB doubled its HD offerings from a year ago to 11.5 of its total 15 hours of prime time; HD service now reaches the top 20 markets after Comcast's introduction of service in Denver; and HDNet is finalizing a deal with a film production company to create original movies in HD starting in November. As HDNet aims to expand aggressively, new competitor iN Demand introduced what some in the industry call the "Cuban Killer": its two all-HD channels, INHD and INHD2. The channels launched Sept. 15 on Comcast systems, with Time Warner, Cox and Brighthouse digital cable systems to follow this year. Those cable operators own iN Demand. By the end of the year, 9 million homes will have HD-capable sets and about one-third of those can receive HD content today, he said. By the end of 2007 nearly 47 million homes will have HD sets and nearly 42 million of those will be able to receive HD content, Mr. Kishore added. According to the National Cable and Telecommunications Association, as of Sept. 1, 60 million cable homes are in an area that can receive HD service from local cable operators. That's an increase of more than 60 percent since the beginning of the year. In addition, more than 230 broadcast stations are being transmitted digitally as of this month, up from 190 in June.

Ancillary Services Raise Questions About Costs (September 17, 2003) Networks and cablers are debating where the charges for ancillary services, such as VOD and HDTV, should fall. ESPN contends such ancillary services cost networks money to deploy, and therefore the charges are justified. Insight Communications and ESPN sparred Wednesday over the issue of networks levying programming costs for HDTV, broadband and VOD.

And This Little Cable Co-Op Was The First To Go Hi-Def (September 15, 2003) Clear Creek is leasing the HD set-tops for $5 a month. For that, customers get the local off-air HD signals for free. They also receive the HBO and Showtime HD feeds if they subscribe to those services. For another $9.95, they can get HDNet, HDNet Movies, Discovery HD Theater and ESPN HD. The company has a 33% penetration rate for high-speed data and he suspects HD will be similarly popular. Clear Creek's customer base may be rural — the company's plant passes about 12 homes a mile — but they are sophisticated users, Moore says.

Digital America (?) the number of U.S. households owning a CEA-defined home theater system almost doubled during the past five years to 30 percent in January 2003, up from January 1998's 16 percent, CEA consumer surveys show. By the end of February 2003, cable HD service passed more than 45 million TV households, or 42 percent of 106.6 million U.S. TV households, says NCTA. That's up from the 37 million households passed by HD cable at the end of 2002.

The HDTV Tortoise (June 30, 2003) HDTV owners have an average household income of $95,800, 73% above the overall sample. With an average of 2.7 Television sets per home (in areas where cable is available), there are about 275 million TV sets in consumers' homes in the United States, and millions of new television sets continue to be purchased each year. 13% of households plan to purchase a new TV set in the next 12 months. 9% of all DBS subscribers say that they have an HDTV set, compared to 4% of all cable subscribers. While 17% of households in cable areas get DBS, 33% of households in these areas with an HDTV set subscribe to DBS.

A clearer picture (June 23, 2003) ...total number of HD sets in use should double to about 11 million by this time next year. The survey also indicates that a majority of people who intend to buy hi-def sets will choose cable as the provider of HDTV service. The bad news is that nearly 90% of those polled have no intention of buying into hi-def anytime soon. For those planning to purchase an HDTV (base = 110), the vast majority (90%) are planning to do so within two years or less. More specifically, 25% plan to make their purchase within the next six months, 27% within six to 12 months and 37% within a year or two. African-Americans were more likely than whites to plan on purchasing an HDTV (17% vs. 9% of whites), as were men (14% vs. 8% for women) and younger Americans, with 18-44 year olds (14%) being significantly more likely to purchase an HDTV than older Americans (8% of those aged 45 or older). Upscale households (15%), up & coming singles (15%), retirees (14%) and affluent families (12%) are significantly more likely to purchase an HDTV compared to downtown residents (4%) and young adults (3%). Of those planning to purchase an HDTV, more than half plan on using digital cable service (52%), while one-third plan on using satellite (34%)--e.g. Dish Network or DirecTV. A relatively small proportion of those planning to purchase an HDTV will use free, over-the-air service via antenna (6%), and approximately 8% have yet to make a decision regarding the service they will use. A significantly greater number of those earning more than $75K will use satellite service compared to those in the $30-$50K income bracket (54% vs. 26% respectively). Southerners (54%) are significantly more likely than Midwesterners (17%) and those living in the West (30%) to use a satellite service once they purchase an HDTV. It is interesting to note that younger Americans who plan on purchasing an HDTV do not show the same enthusiasm toward satellite service that their parent's generation shows (21% of 18-24 year olds vs. 48% of those in the 45-64 age range said they would use satellite service). Lifestyle differences impact the type of service that will accompany the purchase of as HDTV. Up & coming singles (84%) are significantly more likely to select digital cable compared to retirees (46%), city dwellers (47%) and factory & farm workers (52%).

Cable's HDTV offerings vary widely And it's best not to ask operators about it (June 23, 2003) If you've been wondering whether it's finally safe to plunk down more than $1,000 for a high-definition television (HDTV) set, the cable industry has good news for you: Go ahead. Your operator will be there with the programming. Just don't ask how many channels you'll get, when you'll get them or how much the whole shebang will cost. Cable systems now offer HDTV's sharp pictures and rich sounds to subscribers in nearly 80 markets. That's not bad considering only 2 million homes have HDTV sets and receivers -- and there's no reason to believe the number will soar in the next year. About 3% of cable customers said that they were ''very likely'' to shell out $1,000-plus for HDTV in the next 12 months, according to a recent Leichtman Research Group survey of 1,250 households. While prices and offerings vary by market, Comcast typically charges about $5 a month for the box. Customers then usually get HD programming from ABC, CBS, NBC and PBS. By contrast, Cox and Charter want to make money from HD, or at least not lose money. Cox charges its Las Vegas subscribers $10.15 a month for the decoder -- a $7 premium. Customers in Phoenix, Cleveland, Omaha and elsewhere must buy the box for about $500. Then they have to pay extra for the programming. A package including ESPN and Discovery's HD shows costs from $5 to $7 a month. Broadcasters say their investment in digital TV will be worthless if the signals can't reach the 72 million homes that receive programming via cable. Many fear that operators, who spent more than $85 billion since 1996 to upgrade their systems to handle two-way communications, will spend more to keep subscribers from switching to satellite.

HDTV Attracting A Wealthier Subset (June 16, 2003) research found that current HDTV owners have an average household income 73% above average, and those most likely to purchase an HDTV set in the next year have an average income 54% above average. LRG forecasts that the total number of HDTV-capable households in the US will grow to 33 million by the end of 2007. 9% of DBS subscribers in areas where cable TV is available say that they currently own an HD-capable set, compared to 4% of cable subscribers. 43% of those who have an HDTV set, or are very interested in getting an HDTV set in the next year, would be very likely to spend $9.95 per month for an HD programming package.

HDTV pumps up games on ESPN, young technology (March 29, 2003) Only 5 million of the nation's households currently have digital TVs. And of those, only 1 in 15 households actually bothers to buy the antenna or satellite dish and a separate tuner to receive high-definition broadcasts, according to Forrester Research in Cambridge, Mass. HDTV has been a dud with consumers. Even though the average price of a digital TV has dropped from about $10,000 to about $1,500, the perceived dearth of programming has kept consumers away. DirecTV and EchoStar's DishNetwork have offered Showtime, HBO and high-definition sports programming for more than two years. Even so, fewer than 3 percent of the 19.8 million satellite subscribers receive high-definition broadcasts. An even smaller number of cable subscribers -- people in the broadcast industry put the number at 50,000 -- receive ``The Sopranos'' or other HBO programming in HDTV, even though the National Cable and Telecommunications Association says 43 million American households could now theoretically access it.

Diamonds, Who cares, Give me HDTV (November 8, 2002) The Consumer Electronics Association found that 58 percent of women would prefer to own a HDTV set than a 1-carat diamond ring. CEA's study, which was released on Tuesday, said that 64 percent of women would rather have a digital camera than a pair of half-carat diamond stud earrings. "Female consumers spend approximately $55 billion each year on consumer technology products. ...20 percent of women own a laptop computer, whereas only 12 percent did in 2000. Nearly two-thirds of women own a cell phone, while 49 percent did two years ago, said CEA. Women initiate almost half -- 49 percent -- of all electronics purchases

HDTV in Advertising:

Commercial breakdown (December 28, 2004) With the Super Bowl around the corner, many advertisers are reporting little movement in producing advertisements in high-definition, with industry insiders preferring to wait for more widespread adoption of HD technology before committing to produce ads in the wide aspect ratio. Former ad agency executive Damon Webster said, "There just aren't enough people getting HDTV to make it worth the cost."

HDTV: make 'Em pay: (December 02, 2002) Just as broadcast ads are used to promote General Motors and Ford, he suggested, they can whet the public's appetite for HDTV. On their analog channels, stations should regularly promote shows as shot in HDTV and urge viewers to call the local cable company to demand high-def channels be added to the lineup. "We have the mightiest promotional engine in the world. We could create a demand for our HDTV signals on a cable system and generate a second revenue stream. Why we are not doing that, I don't know."

HDTV in Europe Movement:

Award of Europe's first MPEG-4 AVC HD compression contract (May 24, 2005) TANDBERG Television (Oslo: TAT.OL) today announced that its high definition (HD) MPEG-4AVC video encoding and distribution system has been chosen by BSkyB for the launch of its HD service. BSkyB recently announced that it plans to become one of Europe's first HD broadcasters when it launches HD services in 2006. To deliver an HDTV channel line-up that will include a combination of sports, movies, entertainment and documentary programming, BSkyB is deploying a TANDBERG Television HD video head-end with statistical multiplexing and TANDBERG EN5990 HD MPEG-4 AVC encoders.

Digital TV re-emerges on the European market (April 15, 2005) The latest evidence suggests that digital TV is once again in the spotlight. Satellite remains the dominant digital TV platform in terms of the total audience, with 25m homes, and we expect it to retain market leadership until 2010 by adding new services such as personal video recording and HDTV.

High-definition TV in Europe (September 09, 2004) Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com) has announced the addition of High-definition TV in Europe to their offering. High-definition television (HDTV) is already being broadcast in Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea and the US, and now it is coming to Europe. This report analyses the nascent, but developing market in Europe. It investigates the competing technologies currently in the marketplace, assesses developments in other markets and forecasts the size of the European HDTV market.

Hip to the Program (June 28, 2004) European broadcasters are finally seeing the big picture. Literally. Members of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) are engaged in intense discussions over a European HD broadcast standard. It's a race to secure a standard before two commercial HDTV services are launched in 2006. Europeans now have one HD offering: Euro1080 (a 1080-line-interlace service distributed primarily to theaters). Because that service isn't associated with any established broadcast organizations, the entry of BSkyB and TF1 into HD is key. Only five years ago, Europeans considered HDTV a waste of bandwidth and energy. But the rollout of HDTV across the U.S., as well as in Australia, Korea and Japan, has attracted European attention. Europe must now decide if it will have one HD standard or several, as the U.S. has. The decision is 720-line progressive (which provides less picture information but is better for fast-motion content, such as sports), 1080-line interlace (more picture information but better for non-sports action), or a scan standard that incorporates both. Projections call for about 18 million Europeans to be watching HDTV by 2008.

HDTV DVD Movement:

HDTV coming of age in the USA: high definition in parallel with digital TV (July 13, 2004) HDTV has finally turned the heads of the Hollywood studios, who are now firmly behind an HD optical disc format as the evolutionary future of the DVD (although which format they are behind, HD DVD or Blu-ray, is still unclear). In essence, if there's a dollar to be made in a format, why leave the distribution channels to make it in a later window?

Microsoft video tech aims for prime time (July 13, 2004) Microsoft also has received a preliminary standards nod from the Society of Motion Pictures and Television Engineers for approval of its VC-9 technology. The VC-9 and H.264 formats are in the early stages of a struggle that could ultimately define the next generation of professional video technology for a decade or longer. More evidence of dual support of the codecs is Harmonic, a provider of codec technology to cable companies and others. While it supports H.264, it also has added VC-9 support for the company's new DiviCom real-time encoding platform. "The real goal is to figure out a way to get an 'operating system' royalty per TV," Raikes wrote in an e-mail that ultimately surfaced in one of the class-action lawsuits against the company. "Tens of millions of TVs per year at $10 to $20 per TV is a nice little 'operating system' business."

Retail Relationships Surrounding HDTV:

Best Buy Bundles HDTV, DirecTV (February 5, 2004) Best Buy Co. Inc. will launch five new HD bundles Feb. 8 at its more than 600 retail stores in 48 states

Cablers Look to Connect at Retailers (November 26, 2003) In what observers call a logical move to compete with satellite TV companies, which have cruised into retail stores with promotions and partnerships during the past few years, Time Warner Cable this week announced its first retail endeavor, saying it will sell its cable TV service in connection with Pioneer Electronics' high-definition television sets. Cable operator Cox Communications recently launched a promotion with Best Buy, where a $50 gift card is available if a customer signs up for high-definition or digital TV service from Cox. "There will be a national ad on Dec. 22," a company spokeswoman said. "We are working with manufacturers to create other promotions," she added, hinting that the next couple of weeks could see the announcement of additional retail partnerships. Observers have also pointed out that the cable industry's move into more traditional telecommunications services, such as broadband and telephony, also means that sector players have more hardware to sell in retail stores.

Cable Has Never Been Closely Tied To Retail. Of Course, HDTV Is Changing That (August 25, 2003) For the first time, cable operators find themselves needing to partner with retailers because they are symbiotically connected. They need each other to realize the success of HD television sales and HDTV tier sales. This entirely codependent relationship is worthy of a scene from The Matrix Reloaded. It's not about control; it's about how we can work together. For the retail sales model to succeed, the MSO HDTV tier offering will have to be explained and featured along with all the technologies and content that makes it a simple, compelling and totally honest marketing proposition.

Market Predictions and Opinions

High Definition Television Monitors (July 30, 2005) The JupiterResearch report predicts that HDTV monitors will grow from an installed base of 13 million in 2004 to 74 million by 2010. However, JupiterResearch also estimates that less than four million HDTV households were receiving high-definition television service at the end of last year, a number that will grow to 69 million by 2010.

Fuzzy forecast for high-def lift-off (July 18, 2005) Detractors keep pointing to problems with high-def. But one of the boosters, Josh Bernoff, senior analyst with Forrester Research, predicts the modest figure of 10 million people who owned high-def TV sets at the end of 2004 will more than quintuple over the next six years, to 50.4 million in 2009.

HDTV to Transition from Niche Market to Significant Contributor of Satellite Capacity Demand (May 10, 2005) From a global total of US$47.6M in revenues directly attributed to commercial satellite capacity leased purely for HD broadcasting in 2004, to a massive US$323.8M in revenues by 2010, the report forecasts significant growth in satellite lease revenues. This growth may be seen as welcome news for satellite operators given the recent stalemate in lease capacity prices due to excess capacity. In fact, the timing of HD could not be better: with increasing pressures from governments to migrate analog channels to less bandwidth intensive digital starting from 2005/6 onwards, operators have been looking at HD to soak up excess capacity. "From a regional perspective, it is clear that North America and Japan have led the way in ensuring HD has finally emerged from being a niche service to a more widely accepted standard and an eventual replacement for standard definition digital television," states Christopher Baugh, President of Northern Sky Research (NSR). "Europe is not far behind with its first HD channel started in 2004 and all the major national broadcasters announcing plans to launch HD channels. In fact, the key market and technology variables for Europe are only now just beginning to align, paving the way for sustained evolution of the HD industry, similar to what North America has experienced over the past few years.

HDTV to hit 52m homes by 2009 (May 10, 2005) Some 10 million homes worldwide currently have HDTV, a figure that is projected to grow to 15.5 million by year-end, according to market research company In-Stat. It forecasts HDTV will be in 52 million households by 2009. The US currently has four million HDTV sets in use, up from 1.6 million in March 2004. HDTV is currently only widely available in five countries: the US, Australia, Canada, Japan and South Korea.

Millions More Homes Will Turn on HDTV in 2005 (December 20, 2004) Consumer adoption of HDTV has been strong over the past year, and will continue to grow substantially over the next several years. We expect that by the end of this year about 10 million households will have an HDTV, and that number will grow to 45 million by the end of 2008," said Bruce Leichtman, principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group.

HDTV coming of age in the USA (December 01, 2004) By the year end it is forecast that there will be be 12.6m US households equipped for HDTV reception * By 2008 we predict that 94 per cent of all digital TV displays in the US will be high definition

Cable boxes getting boost from HD (November 22, 2004) The market for digital cable set-top boxes experienced a growth spurt this year after a dip in 2003,fueled by increasing demand for personal video recorder- and HD-enabled digital cable boxes. Researcher In-Stat/MDR, a sister company to Video Business, predicts that demand will remain constant for the next 12 to 18 months. In the U.S., almost half of all cable subscribers have set-top boxes, and 90% of installed set-top boxes are now digital. Worldwide, shipments of PVR-enabled set-top boxes are expected to grow 170% this year, while HD-enabled boxes are expected to show growth of 219%. About 70% of digital cable set-top box shipments worldwide are in the U.S.

HDTV Into 37 Million U.S. Homes By 2008 (October 05, 2004) Report predicts that the number of US households owning some type of HD-capable hardware will rise from 8.7 million in 2003 to more than 14 millionby the end of this year. Roughly half of these households will also receive HD programming from cable, satellite or terrestrial sources. By 2008, some 37 million households will receive HD programming.

HDTV to Penetrate 4.8 million European Households by the end of 2008 (September 09, 2004) HDTV will penetrate some 4.8 million European households by the end of 2008 - up from 50,000 in 2003. Although the consumer market will develop slowly, due to the high price of consumer equipment, broadcasters/producers should prepare and must begin to substantially upgrade their equipment and infrastructure from today.

HDTV market beckons (June 00, 2004) In the near term, the market sector with the greatest growth potential seems to be HDTV, in view of the large amounts of capacity that will be needed to accommodate the transition from digital to high-definition TV. Strong growth is already being seen in the US and Japan.

Cable Gains as HD Awareness Grows (December 1, 2003) And awareness of HD programming on cable is growing, while awareness of HD programming on the broadcast nets is shrinking, with 65 percent of consumers aware that the broadcasters had shows in HDTV, down from 67 percent. In contrast, 57 percent of consumers said they were aware of cable programs in HD, up from 52 percent. Magid's Ms. Baldwin noted that there has been much more promotion of high-definition television, and that has helped to raise awareness of HDTV to 87 percent of adults from 83 percent in 2002. Nearly all of that growth in awareness comes among women viewers, with 81 percent of women viewers aware of HDTV, up from 74 percent a year ago. But while awareness of HDTV is up, the percentage of viewers who claim to be familiar with it actually declined. The survey found that 61 percent of consumers claimed to be somewhat familiar with HDTV in 2002, but that figure dropped to 40 percent in 2003. About 60 percent of digital cable subscribers were either familiar with HDTV or actually had an HD set. More satellite subscribers in the survey had HD sets.

New markets emerge. (June 26, 2003) The key growth area in consumer electronics, HDTV, continues to gain traction as set prices fall below $2,000 and TV owners become more aware of the technology. According to recent findings from the CEA, HDTV sales are well ahead of last year. In January, sales to dealers totaled nearly 200,000 units, with dollars totaling $304.1 million, marking a 36% increase in unit sales as well as a 16% jump in dollar sales compared to the same period for the year prior. "We're expecting 40 million households to have HDTV by 2007," said Ryan Jones, senior analyst at the Yankee Group, Boston. Nearly four million homes were HD-enabled by the end of last year.

40 Percent of U.S. Homes will be Viewing HDTV (May 12, 2003) Rapid deployment of HDTV by cable operators and growing availability of HD programming will drive HDTV signals to 41.6 million homes (nearly 40 percent of the U.S. total) by year-end 2007, according to new report from the Yankee Group. The report "HDTV Finally Overcomes Industry Inertia, Set For Rapid Growth," reviews the events affecting HD growth in 2002, and forecasts the numbers of homes that will receive HD signals. It analyzes the drivers of HDTV carriage by cable and satellite operators, and explores the challenges HD programmers face.

The Economics of HDTV (?) The first major problem HDTV has is competition with other forms of digital television.  For example, two companies are developing "smart TV" boxes.  They are VCR type devices that digitally record and store TV shows. HDTV's main problem is it's PRICE.  It is way to high.  It starts at $5,000 and goes up tremendously. Another factor in the resistance of the "HDTV Revolution" is the use of cable companies to transmit the HDTV signals. The question is will they do it. In addition, the computer industry sees profits to be made with HDTV technology and is getting in the act.  Not only will HDTV have an impact on home TV viewers, but it will also affect PC users. If HDTV takes off there is tremendous profits to be gained.  In 2006, the federal government will require broadcasters to turn off their regular, analog TV transmissions.  This will 250 million American tvs obsolete in seconds.

I Predict: 10 Forecasts for HDTV (November 25, 2002) #1. The Cable-Satellite War Will Generate New HDTV Sales: Cable's HDTV roll-out should expand in 2003. Satellite TV operators, of course, have offered HDTV for a few years. But DIRECTV and Echostar will likely expand its high-def services to counter cable's move. The HDTV audience is not large, but it has   money. Both cable and satellite operators know that HDTV owners are more likely to subscribe to premium movie channels and other pay packages.#2. Sports Will Drive HDTV Sales #3. The CE Industry Will Overturn the FCC's Digital TV Vote #4. Hollywood and the CE Industry Will Reach Copyright Compromise in 2003 #5. Digital Video Recorders Will Offer HDTV Recording (Update: This prediction was proven true in January, 2003 when both TiVo and Echostar announced that they would offer DVRs that record in high-definition.) #6. Hollywood and Sports Networks Will Soon Increase HDTV Programming #7. HDTV Will Face Serious Competition From Interactive Services - Cable and satellite TV operators are offering more HDTV feeds, but  they are focusing most of their attention on interactive services, such as Video on Demand and Digital Video Recording. The TV ops believe that the interactive services will generate more revenue, particularly in the short term. So, for a few years at least, look for HDTV to take a back seat to interactive services on both cable and satellite. #8. HDTV Could Hit a Snag If Rupert Murdoch Buys DIRECTV #9. HDTV Will Change the Way Hollywood Makes Films and TV Shows - As more homes get HDTV, it will change our culture's perception of who's beautiful and who's not. Stars who are blessed with naturally beautiful skin and hair will suddenly be in even greater demand in Hollywood. The studios will also change the way they produce and write films and TV shows, to take advantage of HDTV's precise and widescreen picture. #10. Despite Steady Gains, HDTV Will Not Be in Every Home By Decade's End